It is almost laughable to see the economists at Goldman Sachs totally walk back their Fed forecast for 2019 while at the same time telling everyone they are not the least bit worried about recession. The ‘normalized’ NY Fed model already is between 40% and 50% odds. I’d say that’s pretty high. Meanwhile, the Duke University poll of CFO’s shows 49% seeing a recession in 2019 and 82% believe the recession comes by 2020.

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